GrowthMap USA scores 3,144 U.S. counties on future housing-demand pressure. Every score is a national percentile built from dated public records. Missing data is never treated as zero — a category is scored only on the metrics that exist for that county, and gaps lower its confidence score instead.
| Block | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Demographics | 18% | 2020–24 and 2014–24 population growth, net migration, density, prime-age (25–44) shift, household growth |
| Physical growth | 25% | Building permits per 1k residents, permit momentum 2022–24, housing-unit stock growth, multifamily share |
| Housing market | 22% | 12-month price and rent growth, for-sale supply per household, days-to-pending |
| Future demand | 25% | Migration momentum vs. 2015–19 baseline, employment and establishment growth 2020–23, 5-year price trend |
| Price gap | 10% | Price-to-income ratio and price level (inverse — cheaper counties score higher) |
The 3-year view leans hardest on permits, multifamily construction and market momentum; the 10-year view leans on demographics, migration and long-run price trends. The Future Housing Pressure model drops the price block entirely and re-normalizes weights. Growth vs. Price starts from the opportunity score and shifts it up for cheap counties, down for expensive ones.
Counties under 5,000 people have sparse, noisy data. Their composite scores are pulled toward the national median in proportion to population, so a 400-person county cannot top the rankings on one lucky metric.
| Source | Used for | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Census Population Estimates (PEP) | Population, growth, net migration, age structure | 2020–2024 + 2014/2015–19 baselines |
| Census ACS 5-year, table-based SF | Income, households, housing units, median value fallback | 2023 (+ prior-year trend) |
| Census Building Permits Survey | Permitted units, permit momentum, multifamily share | 2022–2024 annual county files |
| Census County Business Patterns | Employment and establishment growth | 2020 → 2023 |
| Zillow Research | Typical value (ZHVI), rent (ZORI), for-sale inventory, days-to-pending | — |